😱 From Walmart to Target: How Organized Retail Crime is Decimating California’s Shopping Landscape! 😱

A Walmart that served families in Fremont, California, for two decades just locked its doors forever.

Not because of declining sales.

Not because of online competition.

Walmart executives said it themselves: the location could no longer sustain operations under current business conditions.

Sarah Chen managed a Target location at Oakland Broadway and 27th Street for 11 years.

4,000 square feet of merchandise, 37 employees, a community gathering place.

In September 2023, she posted a letter to her customers explaining why the doors would close on October 21st.

She wrote that the store had been significantly affected by theft and organized retail crime, creating an unsafe environment for both team members and guests.

That is corporate speak for people were being robbed in broad daylight, and we couldn’t keep anyone safe anymore.

She called the closure devastating for her team.

This was not a board meeting decision made in Minneapolis.

This was a manager watching her community lose access to affordable groceries and essential goods.

And she is not alone.

In the last 12 months, California retail has lost somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000 locations, depending on which analysis you follow.

Walgreens closed 500 California stores in 2025 as part of a nationwide closure of 1,200 locations.

CVS shuttered 271 stores in 2025 after closing 900 between 2022 and 2024.

Macy’s closed 66 locations in 2025, including stores in La Mesa and Tracy, California.

Target shut down nine stores in 2023, with three in the Bay Area alone.

We are talking about over 175,000 jobs lost across California in 2025.

One in seven workers in affected communities saw their employment status change overnight.

So, what is actually happening to California retail?

Before we start, what city are you watching from?

Are you still able to shop at your local stores?

I would like to know.

Let me show you the numbers.

If you want to understand why your neighborhood looks like a ghost town now, stay with me because the numbers I’m about to show you explain everything about what is happening to urban America in California.

On November 5th, 2014, California voters passed Proposition 47.

That measure reclassified theft of property valued at $950 or less from a felony to a misdemeanor.

That is a fundamental shift in how California prosecutes property crime.

We are talking about more than 39 million Californians affected across 58 counties.

That is bigger than the entire population of Canada.

Now, reducing incarceration for non-violent offenses sounds great for criminal justice reform.

That is a noble goal on paper.

But here is what the studies actually found.

The Public Policy Institute of California, serious academic economists from Stanford and Berkeley, published a study in 2018.

Their finding?

California’s larceny rate immediately following Proposition 47 was 9% higher than similar states.

The Legislative Analyst’s Office reported in June 2025 that retail theft increased by 48 crimes per 100,000 people between 2014 and 2023, an 11% increase overall.

While reported retail theft declined between 2015 and 2021, it then increased by 32% between 2021 and 2023.

Another report from the California District Attorneys Association put the shoplifting increase even higher.

Reported shoplifting rose more than 17% in the 10 years since Proposition 47, with 2023 seeing the highest level of reported shoplifting since 1998.

And here is the twist that nobody expected.

Property crime clearance rates—the share of reported crimes where police make an arrest—collapsed from 14% in 2014 to just 8% in 2023.

Think about that.

The likelihood of being caught for stealing dropped by nearly half.

Only eight out of every 100 retail thefts now result in an arrest.

This next part is going to blow your mind.

Now, let me tell you what makes this even more fascinating.

The collapse started before most retailers even understood what was happening.

Nordstrom, the upscale department store that anchored San Francisco’s Westfield Center for 35 years, looked at the data in May 2023 and made a decision.

They announced both their flagship location and their Nordstrom rack would close by August.

Brian Nagel, a retail analyst for Oppenheimer, told Bloomberg the closures reflected concerns about the continued health of downtown San Francisco.

He was being polite.

What he meant was the area had become too dangerous and unprofitable to operate.

Whole Foods, owned by Amazon, closed its 65,000-square-foot mid-market flagship in April 2023 after operating for just one year.

One year.

Amazon spokesperson Jessica Samson cited employee safety concerns.

Employees reported witnessing drug use, aggressive behavior, and constant theft daily.

One worker who worked at the Trinity Plaza Whole Foods told the San Francisco Chronicle she was terrified to work certain shifts.

She said customers would walk out with shopping carts full of products while security watched helplessly.

That is about the reality of trying to run a business under Proposition 47’s framework.

After the closures, downtown San Francisco residents had to travel miles to access fresh groceries or use delivery services that charged premium fees.

Whole Foods basically said it was not their problem anymore.

But Nordstrom and Whole Foods were not alone.

Have you noticed your favorite stores disappearing?

Drop a comment and tell me which businesses have closed near you.

I want to know what is happening in your area.

And this is where it becomes undeniable.

Target Corporate Communications released a statement in September 2023 that was remarkably blunt.

They said, “We cannot continue operating these stores because theft and organized retail crime are threatening the safety of our team and guests.”

Translation: California made it impossible to protect our employees or merchandise.

Let me tell you about Walgreens.

This is the company that started in Chicago in 1901.

At their peak in 2019, they operated nearly 9,560 locations nationwide.

Between 2022 and 2025, Walgreens closed over 1,600 stores nationwide, with California experiencing hundreds of closures.

In San Francisco alone, the company closed 17 locations between 2019 and 2023.

In October 2024, Walgreens announced they would close 1,200 additional stores over three years, reporting a net loss of three billion.

And here is the kicker: many were profitable locations destroyed by shoplifting and organized retail crime.

Their CEO, Tim Wentworth, said the company had been experiencing dramatic increases in theft and that retail crime is one of the top challenges facing the industry.

Translation: We cannot keep stores open when people can steal with impunity.

Walgreens stock, which traded at $83.50 per share in 2015, fell to under $10 per share by late 2024.

To put that in perspective, investors lost nearly 90% of their value.

So, in nine years, the company was gutted.

That is what I call a retail apocalypse.

Now, here is where the franchise owner numbers get really interesting.

Michael Ojada operates a 7-Eleven in Oakland.

He estimated that organized retail crime costs his single store approximately $25,000 annually in stolen merchandise.

That is roughly $70 per day walking out the door unpaid.

Brian Paddock, a CVS regional manager overseeing 14 Bay Area stores, told the San Francisco Chronicle in 2021 that his locations were experiencing theft rates off the charts.

He said thieves would enter with calculators to ensure they stole precisely $949.99 worth of merchandise—just under the felony threshold.

And it gets worse.

When stores started locking up basic merchandise like deodorant, toothpaste, shampoo, and razor blades behind plexiglass, customer satisfaction plummeted.

Shopping times increased by 25% or more as workers needed to unlock cases for every purchase.

That is what it has come to: treating every customer like a potential criminal just to keep products on shelves.

Most people don’t realize this yet, but the economics become impossible when you factor in the costs of security guards, locked merchandise displays, and lost sales from customers who won’t wait for assistance.

Now, let me tell you about the closure that broke my heart a little.

A small Target location in East Palo Alto is a community about 30 miles south of San Francisco with a population of roughly 30,000 people.

The manager, Patricia Gomez, had been running this location for eight years.

On July 30th, 2024, Target Corporate confirmed to SFGate that the store would close, citing prolonged underperformance.

Some employees thought it was a mistake.

They received an email saying the store would close in 60 days, and they didn’t believe it.

The company representative texted a local reporter that management knew months earlier that the location couldn’t sustain operations, but they didn’t want to announce it prematurely and cause panic in the community.

The assistant manager, Monica Reyes, said she found out when she read it in the San Francisco Chronicle.

That is when she received a phone call from corporate HR saying they were done.

Here is what Monica Reyes said that really stuck with me: “I would rather have my old job at lower pay than no job at all. At least I could feed my family.”

Let that sink in.

The workers themselves said they would rather make $16 an hour than zero dollars an hour.

If this is making you think differently about what is happening to California retail, hit that like button.

It helps more people see what is really going on.

But Monica pointed out something else that nobody talks about.

Stores that remained open in high-theft areas had their operating hours severely cut, and security costs skyrocketed, making jobs far more stressful.

The Legislative Analyst’s Office found that property crime clearance rates declined from 14% to 8% since Proposition 47.8%.

That means 92 out of every 100 retail thefts result in absolutely no arrest.

So, you might be a store employee watching people steal daily, calling police repeatedly, and seeing zero consequences.

Uh, you work in an environment where theft is essentially legal.

And then there’s the reality nobody mentions.

James Rodriguez works security at a Walgreens in Oakland.

His job description changed from customer service to witness documentation.

He told KTVU in 2023 that management explicitly instructed guards not to physically intervene with shoplifters.

He said, “We just watch and take notes. We call police. They don’t come. We file a report. Nothing happens. I watch the same people steal every single day.”

This should make everyone angry.

That is the math that nobody wants to talk about.

Now, let me show you what happened to prices.

Target CEO Brian Cornell said it plainly on an August 2023 earnings call.

“We’ve been very clear that organized retail crime is increasingly impacting our business. It’s having a material impact on our results.”

Translation: You are paying for Proposition 47.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics analyzed by the Legislative Analysts Office, California retail prices increased substantially between 2014 and 2024, with security costs being passed directly to consumers.

Retail security costs per square foot in California increased 127% between 2014 and 2023 compared to just 43% nationally.

But here is what really blows my mind about California retail prices.

According to industry analysis, the average California retailer now spends $145 per square foot annually on theft prevention, surveillance cameras, security guards, lock displays, and anti-theft devices.

That is double the national average of $72 per square foot.

A typical California grocery store now employs one security guard for every 10,000 square feet of retail space.

A decade ago, most stores had zero dedicated security personnel.

Walgreens CFO James Kho admitted in a 2023 investor call that the company spent over $50 million on security guards in California alone in one year.

He said that’s $50 million that could have gone to lowering prices or improving stores.

And here’s what happens to those costs: they get passed to customers.

And the numbers get even more insane.

CVS Health CFO Thomas Coway stated in the company’s Q3 2024 earnings report that shrink—the industry term for theft and loss—was running at 3.5% of revenue in California compared to 1.8% nationally.

For a store generating $10 million in annual revenue, that is an additional $170,000 in annual losses compared to national averages.

That store needs to raise prices on everything else by roughly 1.7% just to break even.

When retailers built to operate on 2% to 3% profit margins face 3.5% theft rates, something has fundamentally shifted.

Not everyone is failing.

Costco, the warehouse retailer, operates 135 locations in California and continues expanding.

They employ over 35,000 people in the state.

Their membership model has been operating successfully since 1976, and they are still operating, still employing people, still growing—same state, same theft laws, same economic pressures, different outcomes.

When asked about retail theft, Costco CFO Richard Galante said in a 2023 earnings call, “Our membership model and controlled entry points give us natural theft prevention advantages.”

But they are adapting, too.

Costco deployed receipt checkers at exits, instituted mandatory ID checks at checkout for all purchases over $250, and installed extensive surveillance systems.

That is what it has come to.

Even the successful retailers spend millions on security infrastructure just to survive.

Another success story comes from businesses that abandon physical retail entirely.

Online-only retailers operating out of California warehouses have seen revenue growth of 15% to 20% annually while brick-and-mortar locations collapse.

But here’s the deeper pattern emerging.

The pattern is clear: higher theft, higher security costs, higher prices, fewer stores, and for some retail formats, complete abandonment of California markets.

California retail is not dead.

Costco still thrives.

Amazon delivery continues growing.

Luxury retailers in protected environments maintain operations, but the industry is transforming.

The stores that survive either operate fortress-style security models, abandon physical retail for e-commerce, or serve affluent neighborhoods where theft rates remain manageable.

The ones that cannot figure out the math, they disappear.

Monica Reyes, the Target assistant manager from East Palo Alto, said something that haunts me.

She said, “After our store closed, the next closest Target is seven miles away. People without cars in our community just lost access to affordable goods.”

She is right.

And based on these numbers, there will be more closures.

What retail stores have disappeared from your neighborhood?

Drop a comment and let me know.

I am genuinely curious.

What is changing where you live?

And the consequences go way beyond retail.

Beyond retail itself, there are wider consequences nobody is measuring yet.

Small communities that relied on stores as employment anchors now have fewer job opportunities.

Working families who depended on nearby shopping options lost access overnight.

Commercial real estate in California is seeing unprecedented vacancies.

Downtown San Francisco’s office vacancy rate hit 37% in 2024.

Oakland’s downtown office vacancy reached 26.9% by late 2024.

Empty storefronts line Market Street, Union Square, and Jack London Square.

Landlords are struggling to find tenants willing to sign leases under current economics.

Property values have declined by 30% to 50% in some urban retail corridors.

Food suppliers, security companies, janitorial services, logistics providers, and commercial landlords that served retail establishments are feeling the squeeze.

When 175,761 jobs disappear from one state in one year, the shock waves travel through the entire economy.

According to labor market data from the California Employment Development Department, each retail job supports approximately 0.7 additional jobs in supporting industries.

That means the 175,761 direct retail job losses likely eliminated over 123,000 additional jobs in the broader economy.

Multiply that across 1,600 closed locations, and you are talking about $2.88 billion in annual wages extracted from California communities.

This is the part policymakers don’t want to discuss.

And here is what makes this particularly cruel.

Proposition 47 was supposed to reduce incarceration for non-violent offenses.

The goal was criminal justice reform and redirecting resources toward rehabilitation.

Instead, we got mass retail closures, food deserts in urban neighborhoods, and organized criminal networks that operate with near impunity.

The law of unintended consequences is not theoretical.

It is playing out in real time across California, measured in closed doors, lost jobs, and communities with fewer options.

So, where does this go from here?

On November 5th, 2024, California voters passed Proposition 36 with 68% approval.

That measure partially reversed Proposition 47 by creating new felony theft provisions and increasing penalties for organized retail crime.

The retail transformation is not done.

It is just beginning.

And here’s what happens next year.

Automation will accelerate.

Amazon Go-style checkout-free stores are being tested in Sacramento.

Self-checkout systems with AI-powered theft detection are rolling out across major chains.

Store formats will evolve.

Expect more warehouse-style layouts with minimal displays, fewer mall anchor stores, and experiences designed around minimal loss exposure.

Market segmentation will intensify.

The luxury retail tier survives.

The deep discount warehouse model survives.

The middle market department store and mid-tier grocery formats get crushed.

Within three years, California retail will look fundamentally different.

More e-commerce fulfillment centers, fewer walk-in stores, more locked merchandise displays, more security screening, and more retail deserts in economically disadvantaged communities.

The workers who remain will face more automated workflows and increased security responsibilities.

The ones who lost jobs will compete for positions in a shrinking market, and the communities left behind will travel farther and pay more for basic goods.

This is the reality nobody’s prepared for.

Republicans point to this as evidence that progressive criminal justice reform created chaos.

Democrats argue that the real problem is income inequality, substance abuse, and inadequate social services driving theft.

The truth is more complicated than either side admits.

Proposition 47 did reduce incarceration.

California’s prison and jail populations declined by approximately 44,000 people between 2019 and 2023.

That is real.

That reduced overcrowding and allowed resources to be redirected.

That matters.

But it also coincided with a 32% increase in reported retail theft between 2021 and 2023.

Clearance rates dropping to 8% and hundreds of store closures.

That is also real.

That also matters.

We can hold both truths at once.

The question is not whether Proposition 47 had good intentions.

The question is whether the outcomes match those intentions.

And the data says the answer is complicated.

California is not the first place to experiment with reducing penalties for property crime.

Seattle implemented similar deprosecution policies for theft under $750 in 2020.

Result: reported shoplifting increased 44% between 2020 and 2023.

Philadelphia reduced penalties for retail theft under $500 in 2018.

They saw a 52% increase in reported commercial burglaries within two years.

Oregon passed Measure 110 in 2020, decriminalizing drug possession and reducing theft penalties.

Their property crime rate increased 30% between 2020 and 2023.

The pattern across jurisdictions is consistent.

When penalties decline and enforcement drops, theft increases.

What California is discovering is what economists have documented for decades: deterrence matters.

You cannot mandate public safety into existence by reducing penalties alone.

The math has to work for everyone involved: retailers, workers, law enforcement, and communities.

When it does not, the system finds equilibrium through store closures, higher prices, and economic abandonment of affected areas.

That equilibrium is what we are watching form right now, and other states are watching closely.

The question is not whether California retail survives.

It will.

Industries adapt.

The question is what form it takes when it stabilizes, who benefits from that new form, and who gets left behind.

If you found this breakdown valuable, subscribe to Megan Wright right now.

Share this video with anyone who needs to understand what is happening to California’s economy.

The decisions being made today will affect millions of workers and families for years to come.

This is not just about retail.

This is about the future of urban communities in America.

The collapse of retail infrastructure creates food deserts.

It eliminates entry-level employment opportunities.

It reduces property tax revenue that funds schools and public services.

It accelerates economic segregation.

Um, every state legislature in America is watching what happens in California.

They are taking notes.

They are adjusting their own criminal justice reform proposals based on this real-world experiment.

California became the laboratory.

The rest of the country is the audience.

What we have learned so far: criminal justice reform requires comprehensive implementation; deterrence through enforcement matters; clearance rates collapse from 14% to 8% with devastating consequences; and retail cannot survive 3.5% shrink rates on 2% profit margins.

But the experiment is not over.

It is just beginning.