A 29-Year-Old Star Is a Stronger Contender to Win Oscar 2026 Than Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis

At just 29, Timothée Chalamet smashes the Oscar odds, leaving legends like Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis in the dust.

Daniel Day-Lewis From The Movie "Anemone" And Leonardo DiCaprio From The Movie "One Battle After Another"

Left Image Via Warner Bros. Pictures, Right Image Via Focus Features.

Timothée Chalamet now leads the 2026 Best Actor Oscar race with a 62% win probability on Gold Derby’s experts chart, leaving behind Hollywood titans in the awards-season dust.

Yes, at just 29, Chalamet has soared to the top of the Best Actor odds for his ferocious, kinetic performance in Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, leaving icons like Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis trailing in the charts, at least for now.

The favorites for the Best Actor Oscar.

Who would you like to see win? pic.twitter.com/4tLcrNfhMd

— Oscar Race (@TheOscarRace) October 8, 2025

The tides of Oscar season have shifted dramatically, and it didn’t take a finished film, a glitzy red carpet, or even full reviews to do it, just a surprise screening and a flurry of breathless social media reactions.

What makes this more electrifying? The Oscar narrative, once dominated by safe bets like DiCaprio’s One Battle After Another and Day-Lewis’ Anemone, has been hijacked by a ping-pong epic, part fever dream, part sports biopic, all chaos.

Marty Supreme First Reactions: Timothée Chalamet Serves Career-Best Performance in Josh Safdie’s Movie

timothee chalamet in marty supreme

Image.

timothee chalamet put 10,000 hours for marty supreme

Image.

Timothée Chalamet In "Marty Supreme"

Image.

Timothée Chalamet In "Marty Supreme"

Image.

Timothée Chalamet In "Marty Supreme"

Timothée Chalamet has officially uncorked his most unhinged and electrifying performance yet, and critics are devouring it. Marty Supreme, directed solo by Josh Safdie (of Uncut Gems and Good Time fame), stormed the New York Film Festival as a surprise screening, instantly reshaping the Best Actor conversation.

Playing Marty Mauser, a ping pong prodigy with more ambition than self-control, Chalamet gives a performance described as “the performance of a lifetime,” “career-best,” and “no-holds-barred.”.

Critics have compared the film’s energy to a deranged cocktail of Catch Me If You Can and Uncut Gems (per Variety).

The Hollywood Reporter’s David Canfield wrote:

Discussing Film chairman, Diego Andaluz posted:

“A piece of cinema,” echoed David Crow, calling it “drunk on the confidence of youth.”

Matt Neglia dubbed it a “sprawling and electrifying sports epic,” while Liam T. Crowley gushed that Chalamet’s turn was akin to “Cody Rhodes at WrestleMania 40.”

The supporting cast, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary, Fran Drescher, Abel Ferrara, Tyler the Creator, adds another layer of eccentricity to this already-chaotic canvas.

A24 is betting big on Marty Supreme, pegging it as their major Christmas Day release and one of their most expensive original films to date.

And if the Academy eats up the same adrenaline-drenched chaos that powered Uncut Gems, then Chalamet might finally grab the golden statue.

Leonardo DiCaprio & Daniel Day-Lewis’ New Movies Put Them Squarely In 2026 Best Actor Oscar Race

Leonardo DiCaprio In One Battle After Another

Image.

Leonardo DiCaprio In One Battle After Another

Image.

Leonardo DiCaprio In One Battle After Another

Image.

Daniel Day-Lewis in "Anemone"

Image.

Daniel Day-Lewis in "Anemone"

Image.

Daniel Day-Lewis in "Anemone"

Make no mistake, Timothée Chalamet isn’t steamrolling nobodies. He’s squaring off against living legends.

Leonardo DiCaprio has delivered another showstopper with One Battle After Another, playing the role of Bob in what many see as one of the year’s strongest Best Picture contenders.

Then there’s Daniel Day-Lewis. His return to cinema after an eight-year hiatus in Anemone comes with all the gravitas you’d expect.

However, early reviews have been lukewarm, and with Anemone currently scoring a 54% on Rotten Tomatoes, the Oscar winner may be facing more than just competition.

Dwayne Johnson also entered the race swinging hard with The Smashing Machine, transforming into real-life MMA fighter Mark Kerr.

Below are all the contenders (per Gold Derby chart):

Rank
Actor
Movie
Win Probability
Nomination Probability

1
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
62%
94%

2
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
24%
94%

3
Jeremy Allen White
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5%
83%

4
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
2%
58%

5
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
1%
28%

6
Jesse Plemons
Bugonia
1%
24%

7
Daniel Day-Lewis
Anemone
0%
19%

8
George Clooney
Jay Kelly
0%
19%

The awards race is as fickle as ever. Chalamet is currently riding the high of glowing reactions.

However, Marty Supreme hasn’t been reviewed in full, and surprises can emerge in December, especially from actors with the kind of Hollywood legacy that DiCaprio and Day-Lewis possess.

But we want to hear from you: Is Chalamet peaking too early? Has a new Oscar king truly been crowned? Drop your wildest Best Actor predictions in the comments below!

Marty Supreme will release in theaters on December 25, 2025.

Anemone goes wide via Focus Features on October 10, 2025. 

One Battle After Another was released on September 26, 2025.