“He’s your favorite fighter’s favorite fighter.”

That was the line that set the tone. Spoken with respect but loaded with intent, it captured exactly how many fighters view Justin Gaethje: a violent artist, a war-tested veteran, and one of the most dangerous men to ever step into the UFC lightweight division. And yet, as UFC 304 approaches, Gaethje finds himself in a position few expected—standing across from the sport’s fastest-rising star, Paddy Pimblett, in a bout that has split the MMA world straight down the middle.

The interim lightweight title is on the line. The stakes could not be higher. And somehow, everyone seems to see this fight differently.

Former interim champion Dustin Poirier was one of the first major voices to weigh in—and his take raised eyebrows.

Poirier pointed to Gaethje’s history in five-round wars as the defining factor. Championship fights, he explained, are not just about skill. They’re about surviving chaos, managing fatigue, and staying composed when everything hurts. Gaethje, in Poirier’s eyes, owns that territory.

He openly questioned whether Pimblett could consistently take Gaethje down, let alone control him on the mat. If Pimblett can’t wrestle, Poirier believes he’ll be forced into prolonged striking exchanges—exactly where Gaethje thrives.

Unless Pimblett can stay disciplined for a full 25 minutes, fight at range, and avoid extended brawls, Poirier sees the veteran’s power and willingness to walk into danger as an overwhelming obstacle.

Poirier’s prediction was blunt:
Justin Gaethje by stoppage.

The Business Angle: Does the UFC Want Paddy to Win?

When asked whether the UFC might prefer a Pimblett victory, Poirier didn’t hesitate.

Probably.

Gaethje has flirted with retirement. Pimblett is young, marketable, and already a global draw. From a promotional standpoint, a Paddy Pimblett title reign opens doors to matchups the UFC hasn’t yet cashed in on.

But marketing doesn’t win fights.

Alexander Volkanovski: Betting on Paddy’s Discipline

Former featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski took a very different approach.

Volkanovski isn’t just picking Pimblett—he believes Paddy will win the interim title.

His reasoning centers on one key trait: execution under pressure.

Volkanovski pointed to Pimblett’s victory over Michael Chandler as proof that Paddy can stick to a game plan even while being hunted by a relentless pressure fighter. Time and again, Pimblett has risen to the occasion when critics counted him out.

Volkanovski believes that ability—to stay composed, make adjustments, and trust preparation—will be crucial against someone as dangerous and unpredictable as Gaethje.

His pick?
Paddy Pimblett.

Colby Covington: “This Is a Smash Spot for Gaethje”

Colby Covington, never subtle, was openly frustrated by Pimblett being the betting favorite.

To Covington, Gaethje is still a “tough dog”—a fighter forged in wars who knows this could be his last shot at gold. That urgency matters. Covington believes Gaethje will push Pimblett into places he’s never been before, testing whether Paddy truly belongs at the elite level or whether his rise has been fueled more by hype than accomplishment.

If Gaethje loses, Covington suggests, it may be because the damage from years of wars has finally caught up to him. But if Gaethje is still himself?

Covington would put his money on Justin.

Dan Hooker, Belal Muhammad, and the Wrestling Question

Dan Hooker dismissed the idea that Pimblett should be favored at all, citing Gaethje’s elite takedown defense and lack of experience fighting top-tier lightweights in their prime.

Belal Muhammad echoed similar concerns. He highlighted Pimblett’s habit of absorbing clean shots—something that becomes exponentially more dangerous against one of the hardest hitters in the division.

Muhammad’s breakdown was simple:

On the feet, Gaethje has a clear advantage.

Pimblett’s path to victory is grappling-heavy chaos.

If Paddy can’t consistently wrestle, he’s in serious danger.

Still, Muhammad ultimately leaned toward Gaethje by decision, believing Pimblett’s toughness would keep him alive.

Michael Chandler: “Paddy Is Better Than You Think… But”

Michael Chandler brings a rare perspective—he’s fought both men.

Chandler insists Pimblett is far more skilled than casual fans realize. Long reach, good kicks, composure under pressure. But even with that respect, Chandler still backs Gaethje.

Why?

Experience.

Gaethje represents a level of opposition Pimblett simply hasn’t faced yet. Chandler sees Justin as a complete fighter with the kind of seasoning that only comes from elite competition.

His pick:
Justin Gaethje, interim champion.

Sean O’Malley and the Submission Crowd

Sean O’Malley broke from the pack.

He sees stylistic openings for Pimblett and boldly predicted a second-round rear-naked choke. O’Malley’s confidence rests in Pimblett’s ability to recognize chaos, exploit scrambles, and capitalize when opponents overextend.

Others echoed that sentiment, arguing that if Gaethje doesn’t secure an early knockout, the fight inevitably drifts toward grappling—where Pimblett holds the advantage.

Matt Brown’s Bigger Issue: Merit vs. Marketability

Matt Brown went beyond the fight itself.

He questioned the UFC’s matchmaking philosophy, arguing that Pimblett’s rapid rise to an interim title shot reflects popularity more than merit. Brown contrasted Paddy’s opportunity with fighters like Arman Tsarukyan, who have beaten elite competition yet remain sidelined.

His concern wasn’t just about this fight—but about the sport’s long-term credibility if championships become rewards for entertainment rather than achievement.

Eddie Alvarez: “You Can’t Train for Gaethje”

Former lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez, the man who handed Gaethje his first UFC loss, offered a sobering reminder.

You cannot replicate Justin Gaethje in training.

His pressure, his violence, his refusal to give space—it only becomes real once the cage door closes. Alvarez believes preparation matters less than adaptation. Whoever adjusts faster once the fight truly begins will win.

And to beat Gaethje, Alvarez says, you must meet him in the fire. Hesitation is death.

The Final Question

As UFC 304 approaches, the MMA world remains deeply divided.

Will Justin Gaethje’s experience, power, and indomitable will break the rising star?
Or will Paddy Pimblett’s grappling, adaptability, and unshakable confidence usher in a new era at lightweight?

Veteran grit versus youthful ambition.
Violence versus versatility.
Legacy versus momentum.

This Saturday night in Las Vegas, the arguments end.

Only one man leaves with gold.